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As many as nine American military cargo planes have arrived in Islamabad carrying equipment to support an anticipated visit by US Vice President JD Vance for a second round of peace talks with Iran, a Pakistani official told The National – but uncertainty remains as to whether negotiations will go ahead.
“We are still so unsure [the peace talks will happen],” said the official. “The Deputy Prime Minister [Ishaq Dar, who is also Foreign Minister] and Field Marshal [Asim Munir, Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff, who has led Pakistan’s mediation efforts] are constantly in talks.”
Days after Islamabad began preparing for new talks, Pakistan was still lobbying Iran to confirm whether they would take place. There was also uncertainty over when the ceasefire would expire, with Pakistan naming an early-morning deadline on Wednesday while Mr Trump has suggested it falls closer to Thursday.
In Islamabad, the uncertainty is palpable and disruptive.
Much of the Pakistani capital has been sealed off by roadblocks, officially in place until April 24, although if talks are delayed, they could last longer. One resident living in an eastern area of Islamabad says she cannot travel to work or meetings in the western half of the city because the secure zone cuts through the main thoroughfares.
“Everything has become difficult,” a delivery driver told The National, blaming the barriers for lengthening journey times and rising fuel costs resulting from the Iran war making them more expensive. “We are all waiting for this to end.”
Mr Vance led the US delegation during the first round of marathon negotiations on April 11-12, alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump's son-in-law. Those talks ended without agreement after 21 hours, foundering on the status of Iran’s nuclear programme, the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief.
President Trump said on Tuesday he expects American forces will resume bombing Iran if no deal is secured but stressed he thought a “great” agreement would be reached.
“I think that we will end up with a great deal. I think they have no choice,” Mr Trump told CNBC. But if no deal is reached, “I expect to be bombing because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with”, he added. “The [US] military is raring to go. They are absolutely incredible.”
He added that he did not want to extend the current ceasefire with Iran.
Speaking to reporters at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum last week, Mr Dar struck a more optimistic tone, saying “more than 80 per cent of the work has been done” and that only “a couple of things” remained, with both sides needing to “show flexibility”.
In a meeting with US diplomat Natalie Baker on Tuesday, Mr Dar "urged both sides to consider extending the ceasefire, and to give dialogue and diplomacy a chance", his ministry said.
It said Mr Dar separately spoke to Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, in a call in which they "emphasised the importance of dialogue and engagement". Saudi Arabia has been one of several countries involved in behind-the-scenes efforts to end the war, along with Egypt and Turkey.
The hesitation appears to come largely from Tehran. Since the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes in February and the appointment of his son Mojtaba as successor, there have been signs that a power struggle between Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the country’s civilian leadership has complicated decision-making.
The split was laid bare last week when Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping, only for the IRGC to reimpose “strict military control” hours later and fire on an Indian oil tanker.
An Iranian government spokesman appeared to address those concerns on Tuesday, saying Iran's negotiators were a "complete team". He said the head of the Iranian negotiating team "has been the commander of the field and is fully aware", apparently referring to Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, a former pilot in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
"There is complete experience in this team, and therefore our dear people should know that the Iranian negotiating team will not compromise even a little on national interests," he said.
Mr Trump yesterday said Mr Vance had already departed for Islamabad, but a source told Reuters he was still in Washington. Axios later reported that Mr Vance would arrive on Tuesday. Adding to the uncertainty, Iran has not yet confirmed its participation in the talks aimed at extending a truce that is set to expire on Wednesday evening.
