What now for Germany after humiliating UNSC defeat?

In last week’s elections for the nonpermanent members of the UN Security Council, the stunning loser was Germany, a major European power and the world’s third-largest economy. Berlin failed to win one of the two “West Europe and Others Group” spots, as it was comfortably beaten by Austria and Portugal. This was the first time Germany had failed in such an election bid, having previously served six two-year terms.

This is a humiliation not least for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who immediately announced that Germany would stand again for the 2035-36 and 2043-44 terms. The message was: “this matters.” Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul called it a “bitter defeat” and announced an immediate inquiry into how it happened. Germany is a major contributor to the UN, which will only add to the sense of humiliation.

On one level, Germany should be liked internationally. It is an advocate of the rules-based international order. It has a large overseas aid budget. Since unification in 1990, it has not soiled its reputation, like some major states, through reckless wars and invasions.

One reason for the defeat that was presented to the media is that Germany started its bid too late, letting Austria and Portugal build a head start. If that is the official conclusion, then the German leadership is mistaken.

Significantly, this signals that Germany’s policies and approach have alienated some of its usual supporters

Chris Doyle

Firstly, Germany does not have an automatic right to be elected. We live in a world where smaller states are less willing to cave in and let larger states dominate. This should not be treated as an anomaly but something more serious. It has echoes of when the UK failed to keep a place on the bench of judges at the International Court of Justice in 2017.

Far more significantly, however, this signals that Germany’s policies and approach have alienated some of its usual supporters. Above all, it is about Berlin’s position on Israel and, to an extent, Russia. The hypocrisy is clear. Where Russia is concerned, all Moscow’s crimes and aggression are to be sanctioned, whereas Israel’s crimes — including genocide — are to be ignored. The UNSC vote is a secret ballot but one can imagine that states from the Global South were the least impressed.

Leaving aside the US, Germany ranks alongside India as one of Israel’s most consistent supporters among major powers. Germany has all too frequently held back the EU from taking stronger action against Israel, including, for example, by banning trade with its illegal settlements.

Supporting Israel is perceived as part of the country’s “Staatsrason” (reasons of state), clearly emanating from its historical role in the horror of the Holocaust. Many, even in Germany, ask how long the trauma of its heinous past will last.

Germany has refused to join the 19 UN member states that have recognized the state of Palestine since October 2023. Even the UK and France did so last year.

Germany is vulnerable to the accusation of not just supporting Israel but complicity in the genocide in Gaza

Chris Doyle

What about arms sales to Israel? Germany has typically been Israel’s second-largest arms supplier after the US. Between 2019 and 2023, it accounted for just under 30 percent of all Israel’s arms imports. That arms trade was worth a sizable $380 million for Germany in 2023. Even during that period, Israel was continually committing war crimes, including through bombing Gaza.

But did Germany change its position as a result of Israel’s genocide in Gaza? The initial backing of Israel following the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks was wholehearted. Gradually, it started to adopt a few critical positions. Having promised that it would make a submission supporting Israel in its genocide case at the International Court of Justice, it backed away from doing so. Merz denies Israel is committing genocide.

It did introduce a three-month pause in arms sales in 2025, but sales resumed afterward because of the supposed ceasefire in Gaza and ahead of Merz’s first visit to Israel as chancellor. Germany is vulnerable to the accusation of not just supporting Israel but complicity in the genocide in Gaza.

Germany is a significant purchaser of Israeli arms, giving Israel’s weapons industry a major boost that is vital to its war economy. Tel Aviv is supplying Germany with the Arrow 3 long-range antiballistic missile system — Israel’s largest ever arms export deal at $4.2 billion.

The government is also out of step with German public opinion. A recent opinion poll showed 73 percent of Germans have a very or somewhat unfavorable view of Israel, up 9 percent since last year.

Domestically, the German authorities have imposed one of the most draconian crackdowns against pro-Palestinian activism anywhere outside the US. Huge numbers of activists have been arrested. Academics have been silenced. It is not a country where pro-Palestinian activity is at all free. The rest of the world has noticed. Can this German government shift its approach to allowing more criticism of Israel? It seems unlikely.

Unalloyed backing of Israeli war crimes is not cost-free. It has cost Germany diplomatically and will continue to do so. It requires a sincere, meaningful and effective change of position.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech