The growing regionalization of the Sudan conflict

The conflict in Sudan has evolved beyond the borders of the country, transforming into a major regional security crisis with profound implications for the Horn of Africa, the Sahel and broader African geopolitical stability.

The conflict also reveals how civil wars can rapidly destabilize surrounding regions through violence, forced displacement and humanitarian collapse.

Sudan is situated at the intersection of North Africa, East Africa, Central Africa and the Red Sea corridor. As a result, its civil war should be examined through the prism of the regional landscape as well as the domestic one.

For example, recent developments involving Chad show the extent to which the conflict is spilling into neighboring states and obtaining a regional character. In February, Chad closed its border with Sudan following armed confrontations involving Sudanese militants near the border town of Tine, which resulted in the deaths of several Chadian soldiers and civilians.

Such incidents are a significant escalation that clearly show that Sudan’s internal war is now directly affecting the territorial integrity and security apparatus of neighboring countries. The border closure also reflects growing fears within N’Djamena that continued instability in Sudan may ignite broader security crises inside Chad itself.

Recent developments involving Chad show the extent to which the conflict is obtaining a regional character

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Historically, the Sudan-Chad borderlands have been highly volatile and the resurgence of cross-border violence therefore revives older regional conflict patterns, such as the Darfur crisis during the 2000s.

Such developments suggest that the current war is entering a new phase, in which neighboring states are no longer merely humanitarian bystanders. Instead, they are becoming increasingly vulnerable to direct security repercussions arising from Sudan’s instability.

The regionalization of the Sudan conflict poses particularly severe risks since many neighboring states already suffer from fragile political institutions, economic hardship and weak border governance.

Chad, for example, remains highly vulnerable due to its internal political fragility, ongoing security pressures and limited economic capacity. It reportedly still faces threats from militant organizations operating around the Lake Chad Basin, including Boko Haram and Daesh-affiliated groups.

The influx of instability from Sudan could significantly overwhelm neighboring countries’ already-strained state institutions. Another danger lies in the possibility that prolonged Sudanese instability could contribute to the militarization of border regions. This could empower nonstate armed actors and intensify ethnic and tribal tensions.

The humanitarian dimension of the conflict, which is alarming and is one of its gravest aspects, should also not be forgotten. Sudan has experienced catastrophic levels of human suffering, with millions of people displaced internally and externally.

The scale of the forced displacement has created one of the world’s largest humanitarian emergencies, placing enormous pressure on neighboring countries. Chad alone has absorbed nearly 1 million Sudanese refugees, particularly in its eastern provinces, where local infrastructure and humanitarian resources were already severely limited.

The arrival of such large refugee populations places extraordinary strain on food supplies, healthcare systems, water resources, sanitation networks and employment opportunities. In regions already characterized by poverty and underdevelopment, these pressures can lead to localized violence and political instability.

In addition, the humanitarian catastrophe inside Sudan continues to worsen due to the systematic destruction of civilian infrastructure and the collapse of healthcare systems. Humanitarian organizations have repeatedly warned that millions of civilians remain beyond the reach of emergency assistance due to the ongoing fighting and insecurity.

The influx of instability from Sudan could significantly overwhelm neighboring countries’ already-strained state institutions

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Unfortunately, despite the unprecedented scale of the violence and humanitarian crisis, international attention on Sudan has diminished considerably in recent months, as global focus has shifted toward other geopolitical crises. There has also been a decline in diplomatic engagement and media coverage. This risks normalizing the conflict.

Furthermore, the geopolitical implications of the conflict have expanded significantly, as regional and external actors have become increasingly entangled in Sudan’s instability. This raises the possibility of proxy conflict patterns emerging across the region.

There has also been a growing militarization of border regions and reactivation of transnational armed networks operating across Sudan, Chad, Libya, the Central African Republic and South Sudan. The porous nature of these borders makes it easier to move fighters, weapons and contraband.

If the conflict continues, it could threaten crucial transport corridors and commercial networks that link East Africa to North Africa and the Middle East. In this context, the Sudan conflict increasingly represents a major regional security challenge rather than just a localized civil war.

As a result, renewed international engagement is extremely important. International actors, including the UN, the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, the EU and major global powers, should ratchet up their diplomatic efforts with the aim of at least containing the conflict and preventing further regional spillover.

One of the most urgent priorities should be the establishment of a ceasefire. In addition, the establishment and protection of humanitarian corridors must be an immediate international priority.

In a nutshell, the Sudanese civil war is entering one of its most dangerous phases. The war now threatens not only Sudan’s territorial integrity but also the broader stability of the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. The recent spillover into Chad illustrates this issue. The international community must secure a ceasefire, expand humanitarian access and prevent further regional militarization.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh