Energy this week | Latest Muslim News, Islamic Updates & World Coverage 2026

Hi, this is Kyle Fitzgerald, The National’s US business reporter in Washington. I’m filling in for Jennifer Gnana this week.

The Strait of Hormuz has now been closed for 95 days. And while there are reports that anywhere between 30 and 70 vessels have sneaked through the waterway since early May, approximately 100 are still trapped inside the Arabian Gulf. The status of ceasefire talks between the US and Iran and the potential reopening of the waterway is unclear. US President Donald Trump said late on Monday he expects a deal “over the next week”. Iranian state media reported Tehran's final draft proposal is under review.

The latter suggests that negotiations remain ongoing despite hostilities flaring up again in the region, with Iran launching attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain overnight. Meanwhile Israel and Hezbollah are exchanging fire despite an announcement from Mr Trump this week that the two sides had agreed to a ceasefire. US-backed talks between Lebanon and Israel are expected to continue on Wednesday.

As I write in today’s newsletter, this stalled progress is creeping back into the paper market. And a new survey from the World Economic Forum offers a more pessimistic global outlook weighed down by rising energy prices associated with the war.

Yet Hormuz is not only impacting crude. It is anticipated to be a disruptive force across supply chains and transport services, defence, manufacturing, mining and more. That brings us to the Trump administration's latest efforts to shore up the supply chain for critical minerals, which are used not just for AI and munitions, but also the clean energy transition.

Are you attending next week's Global Energy Forum in Washington? If so, drop me a line at [email protected]

Uncertainty over ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran halted last week's decline in oil prices, which saw Brent tumble 12 per cent on the week and US West Texas Intermediate crude drop 10 per cent.

Now, oil prices are back on the up. Brent futures rose as much as 7 per cent on Monday and WTI gained as much as 8 per cent before settling 6 per cent higher. Prices were little changed on Tuesday, with Brent future trading at roughly $96 a barrel and WTI at about $94 a barrel.

Mr Trump has offered conflicting perspectives on the status of the talks, saying he “couldn't care less” if negotiations were over, before changing course to say discussions were being held at a “rapid pace”. After he said Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire, the two sides continued their attacks on each other. Earlier, Tehran had suggested that indirect talks with Washington had been suspended after another round of US strikes.

Posting on the Truth Social media platform on Tuesday, Mr Trump said reports that the US and Iran had stopped speaking are “false and erroneous”.

Bottom line: Volatility in the paper market resumes while tankers in the Strait of Hormuz remain stuck.

While messaging from Washington and Tehran remains muddled, a new survey from the World Economic Forum's Chief Economists' Outlook is clear: The Iran war and Hormuz closure are causing more stress on the global economy than previously anticipated, with rising energy and food prices, and supply chain disruptions deteriorating growth projections and reinforcing inflationary pressures.

The survey of leading economists in the public and private sectors, conducted from April 6-17, showed increasing pessimism. The war's disruptive nature will spread out across numerous industries but none more so than energy and materials, and by some margin.

Here are some of its findings:

92 per cent of respondents surveyed said energy prices in Europe and South-East Asia would “increase” or “significantly increase” over the next 12 months.
59 per cent of respondents describe the disruption as “very high” and 39 per cent describe it as “high”.
76 per cent of respondents said disruptions to supply chain and transport services were either “very high or “high”.
42 per cent of respondents anticipate food prices will “significantly increase” in the Middle East and North Africa over the next 12 months.

Bottom line: The Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz's closure are roiling energy markets and supply chains, with effects trickling into the global economy. As we enter the second half of the year, an even more pessimistic outlook on energy costs and their consequences could unfold.

Among the industries where the Iran conflict is set to have a moderate to high impact is the mining industry, in addition to supply chains and materials. As I've previously reported for The National, the Iran war is placing greater attention on the vulnerabilities within the critical minerals supply chain.

Let's take a look at the growing demand for copper, a metal that is crucial for technologies powering the clean energy transition such as solar panels, wind turbines, EVs, electricity grids and low-emissions power generation.

Copper is one of the few critical minerals produced in India, which signed a framework agreement during US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit to New Delhi last week. The agreement builds on previous initiatives by the Trump administration to reduce dependency on imports from China, which processes 90 per cent of the world's rare earth minerals.

The US-India agreement was struck alongside a separate $20 billion critical minerals framework during a Quad members forum.

Bottom line: The Quad's critical minerals framework and the US-India critical minerals agreement are two tangible victories Mr Rubio brought back to Washington as the Trump administration presses on with making critical minerals a core part of its “energy dominance” agenda and loosening China's grip on the industry.

Chart of the week

Big number

The percentage of chief economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum who believe energy prices will “increase” or “significantly increase” in China over the next 12 months.

Otherwise known as the “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue”, which is an informal partnership that consists of the US, Australia, India and Japan that collaborates on economics, security and technology in the Indo-Pacific.

June 7: Opec, Opec+ ministerial meeting, Vienna
June 8: Arab Gulf States Institute's Petro Diplomacy 2026 conference, Washington
June 9-10: The Atlantic Council's 2026 Global Energy Forum, Washington