Starmer uncertainty reflects UK’s political instability

The UK will have seen nine prime ministers in the last 20 years if Keir Starmer resigns or is forced out of office before the end of 2026. This is in sharp contrast to the three who served in the two decades before that. Even extending the comparison back to 1970, Britain still only had six prime ministers in the 30 years leading up to the turn of the century.

British prime ministers can remain in office for up to five years before a general election must be called. When Starmer won the election in July 2024, he told supporters: “We did it. Change begins now.” Yet many argue that he has struggled to deliver on that promise.

One could argue that the defining political trend of the past two decades has not been stability or renewal, but a conveyor belt of short-lived prime ministers. The result is a growing sense of frustration among voters and a weakening of public faith in Britain’s political system.

Starmer was always going to face an uphill struggle. His landslide victory in 2024 might have reflected support for Labour, but also the public’s exhaustion after 14 years of Conservative rule and a succession of Tory leaders who quickly fell out of favor. But few expected Starmer’s political standing to deteriorate quite so rapidly.

The defining political trend of the past two decades has been a conveyor belt of short-lived prime ministers

Peter Harrison

In their time, the Conservatives remained defiant until the end, keeping each of their 21st-century prime ministers in office for as long as possible without calling an election.

Labour, by contrast, had the opportunity to present itself as a more competent and stable alternative after spending much of the previous two decades in opposition. Instead, the government came under pressure almost immediately after taking office.

When Tony Blair came to power in 1997, he received what felt like a hero’s welcome. The Conservatives had been swept aside in a landslide after 18 years in office.

Before coming to power, Blair had repositioned Labour toward the political center through his rebranding of the party as “New Labour.” He went on to win three consecutive elections. As prime minister, he introduced major constitutional reforms, including devolution in Scotland and Wales, and the Human Rights Act.

In his early years in office, Blair projected confidence and optimism. Downing Street became associated with a modern, outward-looking Britain, closely linked to business leaders, cultural figures and celebrities.

His time in office was not straightforward. He introduced unpopular policies such as university tuition fees and was accused of overusing political “spin,” but somehow he managed to remain in power for more than 10 years.

Blair’s reputation suffered lasting damage when he backed US President George W. Bush and took Britain into the war in Iraq in search of weapons of mass destruction that were never found.

After just over a decade in office, Blair stepped down in 2007 as many had expected — but with significantly less mudslinging. Gordon Brown succeeded him and lasted for less than three years before the Conservatives returned to power in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats following the 2010 election.

In the years that followed, there was not simply a revolving door of leaders but a broader fragmentation of British politics.

The COVID-19 pandemic and what some say was its mismanagement, Brexit, economic stagnation, falling trust in institutions and declining loyalty to the main political parties have all contributed to a political environment in which long-term leadership appears increasingly difficult to sustain.

At the time of writing, Starmer remains adamant he will stay in office and lead Labour into the next general election. However, the speculation surrounding his future reflects a wider sense of instability that has come to define modern British politics.

For decades, British politics has been dominated by Labour and the Conservatives, with the Liberal Democrats occupying a distant third place. Part of the reason for this was the first-past-the-post electoral system, which heavily favors the larger parties.

But last week’s local elections suggest voters are increasingly willing to back smaller parties, such as Reform UK and the Green Party. Indeed, if there were a general election today, the most likely outcome would either be an outright win for Reform or it holding the balance of power in a coalition.

The local elections suggest voters are increasingly willing to back smaller parties, such as Reform UK and the Green Party

Peter Harrison

Of course, there is no legal obligation for there to be a general election for another three years and a lot could change in that time. But the current standing of Reform and the Greens does point toward a more fragmented political future, in which smaller parties increasingly shape national debate or hold influence in a hung parliament — or even take power.

Why does any of this matter to a Middle Eastern audience? Because Britain’s domestic political instability is increasingly affecting its foreign policy positioning.

Starmer — rightly or wrongly — has aligned himself with several European leaders in resisting pressure for direct military alignment with US President Donald Trump over Iran. A future Labour leader could take a different position. Equally, a future government influenced or led by Reform could seek far closer alignment with Washington.

Despite the growing opposition, the Starmer-led government has seen some popular actions. The PM’s position on the Iran war has been welcomed by many of those concerned that the UK risks becoming involved in another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict that costs billions in public money and potentially thousands of lives.

His government has also overseen increases to the minimum wage, the introduction of employment rights reforms and a review of the pensions system. Despite this, he remains under pressure over the pace of economic growth and the wider sense that living standards have failed to improve quickly enough.

Under British law, a governing party is not required to call a general election when its leader changes. The principle is that voters elect MPs rather than a prime minister directly — it is a system that has long favored Labour and the Conservatives.

The irony now is that the same system could contribute to the decline of both parties, as voters increasingly look beyond the traditional political establishment.

Both Reform and the Greens have called for electoral reform. If this were ever to materialize, Britain’s traditional two-party model — and the centrist consensus that shapes most of the country’s politics — could begin to break down. Labour and the Conservatives may not disappear, but their era of unquestioned dominance is looking increasingly uncertain.

• Peter Harrison is a senior editor at Arab News in the Dubai office. He has covered the Middle East since 2009. X: @PhotoPJHarrison