The resilience titan: Only the US ranks higher than KSA in new stability index

The war between the US, Israel and Iran has been ongoing since Feb. 28, and given the ebb and flow between Washington and Tehran, it will not lead to a victory or benefit for one side at the expense of the other in any tangible way.

Evidence of this can be seen in the impacts of the crisis, particularly what was monitored and published between March and May by highly credible institutions such as the Conflict and Environment Observatory, which stated that the first 14 days produced more than 5 million tonnes of carbon emissions — equivalent to the total annual emissions of a country like Iceland.

The burning of oil depots in Tehran and other cities has saturated clouds with oil particles. Black rain is threatening public health and agricultural crops across an area of approximately 12,000 sq. km in Iran and neighboring Gulf countries. According to the UN Environment Programme, the initial cost of addressing the environmental damage caused during the first 12 days is estimated at around $30 billion.

This is due to attacks on nuclear facilities and infrastructure, which make environmental cleanup operations more complex and costly than in traditional conflicts. The war has driven fertilizer prices up by 45 percent, as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization, harming crops in import-dependent countries such as India and Brazil.

Within two months, agricultural production in the Gulf region fell by 30 percent, while the UN’s Global Food Price Index rose by 18 percent, and prices of grains and vegetable oils increased by up to 40 percent due to supply chain disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

The World Bank reported that, due to the war, the cost of living in the Middle East and North Africa has risen by 22 percent, and in Europe by 7 percent, driven by rising energy and food prices. Households in developing countries have lost an average of 15 percent of their purchasing power, and 30 million people worldwide now live below the poverty line. Consequently, when the majority of Gulf states and some European countries call for a peaceful resolution to the conflicts between the parties involved, they are not merely trying to save themselves, but the entire planet.

Households in developing countries have lost an average of 15 percent of their purchasing power, and 30 million people worldwide now live below the poverty line

It is noteworthy that Iranians in the Shatt Al-Arab basin and in the eastern border regions have reverted to a barter system reminiscent of the Middle Ages, because the Iranian currency has completely collapsed. They are bartering dates for diesel, and nitrogen fertilizers for foodstuffs such as flour and oil.

The Conflict and Environment Observatory has noted changes in the terrain of Iranian border regions and a shift in the course of groundwater flows estimated to be thousands of years old, which is why scientists believe it will transform into a carbon copy of the Red Zone, the latter located in northeastern France, where the Battle of Verdun took place in 1918 — considered the longest battle of World War I, lasting 300 days.

Due to the battles and the decomposition of shells and weapons, its soil has been exposed to high levels of arsenic, zinc, lead, and copper, to the extent that arsenic levels in the soil are estimated at 17 percent. This concentration is lethal. The area is currently isolated and uninhabited, and it is expected that it will not recover for four hundred years. Normal life, then, will likely not return to its Iranian counterpart until at least the year 2100, as a result of its complex chemical contamination.

Certainly, the Gulf pays the highest price, but it can bear the burden. One example is the losses incurred by Gulf airlines, which reached $5 billion in the first month of the war, according to the CAPA Centre for Aviation, along with a rise in war risk insurance premiums by 500 percent for aircraft landing at Gulf airports.

According to the World Bank, the increase in consumer goods prices in Gulf Cooperation Council member markets reached 50 percent, driven by the rise in shipping costs and war risk insurance premiums. Saudi Arabia may be an exception, as it ranked second after the US on the list of the five countries least affected by the Iran war, ahead of Australia in third place, Norway in fourth, and Canada in fifth.

These findings were reported by the International Monetary Fund and the Oxford Institute for Economic Research in the Resilience and Adaptation Index published in April 2026. Additionally, the Saudis prevented a complete collapse of the global economy in March 2026 by pumping their oil supplies through Red Sea ports.

The current war in Iran reminds us of the siege of the city of Caffa on the Crimean Peninsula, which took place in 1346 A.D. During that siege, Jani Beg, the commander of the besieging Mongol Empire army, used catapults to hurl the bodies of his soldiers infected with the Black Death over the walls of Caffa.

What happened was that Italian merchants fled the city by ship and left it to the Mongols, but they carried with them fleas and rats infected with the disease. After their ships docked in Europe, the plague spread there, killing nearly 200 million people — or 33 percent of the world’s population at that time. Consequences of war can often be more dangerous than the war itself. 

• Dr. Bader bin Saud is a columnist for Al-Riyadh newspaper, a researcher in media and knowledge management, a university professor and expert in crowd management and strategic planning, and the former deputy commander of the Special Forces for Hajj and Umrah in Saudi Arabia. X: @BaderbinSaud