Trump has changed the rules of the game on Iran

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that a meeting between President Donald Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could be held tomorrow if the latter agreed. However, it is highly unlikely such a meeting will take place. Any talks involving these two men would bring to mind the historic 1972 meeting between Chinese leader Mao Zedong and Richard Nixon, with Henry Kissinger in attendance.

However, the differences are vast. Iran is not China and Khamenei is not Mao. The leadership of the supreme leader is completely different from that of the Chinese chairman. Moreover, Mao agreed to hold that meeting to settle scores with the Soviet Union.

In all likelihood, Iranian officials never expected the situation to turn into what it is today. The scene is unprecedented in the relationship between revolutionary Iran and the “Great Satan.” The truth is that Trump is a surprise not only to Iran, but also the entire world. Never has an American president shaken the world order like him. He has changed the rules of the game, the rhetoric, the tools of applying pressure, and the threats. He is a president who acts without fear of backlash on the internal scene despite the many critics. He is not afraid of a world that has grown accustomed to defying a hesitant or retreating America.

The US has never addressed Tehran the way it is doing now

Ghassan Charbel

What Trump is asking of Iran is not simple. He is demanding that it return to its own borders after decades of weaving its influence in the region. He is insisting that it abandon its nuclear dream, reminding it that Saddam Hussein, the Assad regime, and Muammar Qaddafi had all harbored such ambitions. Israel ended the Iraqi and Syrian dreams, while George Bush ended the Libyan one when he tasked late Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika with relaying a threat to the Libyan leader.

Trump is also demanding that Iran curb its missile program, which Tehran views as its source of strength. Setting limits to the missiles is like setting limits to Iran’s role in the region given that Trump is also insisting that it stop sending weapons and funds to its regional proxies.

It is obvious that Iran in the recent decades has waged a systematic campaign against the US influence in the Middle East. Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian military commander killed in a US airstrike in 2020, never shied away from telling his inner circle that he believed the US was protecting regimes that are allied to Washington. He believed that the shape of the region could be changed by cutting the thread that ties the US to these regimes.

For decades, Iran achieved two major goals. It steered the battle away from its territories and toward other countries where the fight was carried out by proxies, so it never really engaged in a direct conflict. The situation today is different, especially after the Israeli attacks on Iran last June that concluded with the US pounding Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran is no longer capable of waging the battle in other countries. Instead a direct clash with the US is now on the cards.

Does Iran hold any serious cards to pressure Washington?

Ghassan Charbel

In previous decades, the US never addressed Iran the way it is doing now. Trump is offering it a deal, while also saying that his finger is on the trigger. He is not speaking of regime change. But at the same time, if he senses that Iran is taking a hard line, he shifts course and says regime change could be the best thing that could happen.

Trump is demanding that Iran “return to Iran.” He is effectively insisting that it no longer has the final say in Beirut and relinquishes its ability to overrule decisions taken by the Lebanese authorities. He is also demanding that it abandon its attempts to run the government formation process in Baghdad.

Experience has shown that Iranian negotiators are skilled and rely on patience to wear down the other party. But does Iran currently hold any serious cards to pressure the US? In past decades, it was able to use “unknown” groups to bomb a US embassy or kidnap American citizens. Such practices are no longer possible. Trump’s America can take the game to Iran, settle scores, and see them through to the end.

A new round of Iranian-American negotiations will be held amid a “diplomacy of fleets” whose overwhelming might Trump is hoping he will not have to use. The armada is accompanied with economic pressure and threats to escalate measures against Iran’s oil exports to China.

Trump is making challenging requests of Khamenei. Iran can come up with flexible wording related to its nuclear file, but it will be difficult for Tehran to allow the issue of its missile arsenal and armed proxies on the negotiating table. The US leader is not calling for superficial fixes, but is demanding that Iran change its regional and international approach, as well as abandon an article in its constitution that views the exporting of the revolution as a fundamental part of its policy.

Amid this major crisis in the region, most countries are acting with a deep sense of responsibility to avert a new war in the Middle East. Only Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu is dreaming of conflict because he fears that an “incomplete” deal could be struck that appeases the master of the White House, but does nothing to address Israel’s concerns.

The question is, will Iran accept that the Middle East has changed and that it should return to its own borders and concern itself with rebuilding its economy, improving the lives of its people, and taking part in arrangements to establish permanent stability in the region?

• Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel

This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.